HKD Liquidity & LERS Monitor
USDHKD Convertibility Zone
Observation: 2026-10-29 · ECB reference-rate cross (EURHKD / EURUSD), daily · FRESH · Structured JSON / input evidence
Uses whichever USDHKD series has the newer observation: the Fed H.10 rate (weekly, ~1 week late) or the ECB cross (same day). The two are different fixings and are never mixed.
7.75 Strong-side CU ↔ 7.85 Weak-side CU
Geometric location of the stored spot observation, not a peg risk score or executable quote. CU boundaries describe spot, not forward rates.
Formula and interpretation
strong distance=(spot-7.75)*10000; weak distance=(7.85-spot)*10000; position=(spot-7.75)/0.10*100; values not clamped
Negative distance or position outside 0–100% is retained, not clipped. Always check the observation date and underlying quote definition.
| Indicator / date | Current | Δ 1 obs | Δ 5 obs | Flag / evidence | Freshness / quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M HIBOR − 1M EFB 2026-09-30 · 20 trading days old · mixed frequencies | 35.5 bp | -5.1 bp | +7.9 bp | Stale dataAlert when absolute change from previous observed date exceeds 10 bp. Configured monitoring threshold; not a risk score. Formula: (HIBOR_1M - HKGB_YIELD_1M) * 100 1 interval: 2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 Absolute move percentile: 56.94th over trailing 2Y (490 prior intervals) · BELOW_95TH_PERCENTILE 5 intervals: 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-30 Percentile: absolute prior observed-interval changes within trailing two calendar years; current move excluded; trusted endpoints only; minimum 60 prior moves; daily frequencies only. Coverage may be shorter than two years. Current stored quality classifications apply. Observation exceeds frequency-aware freshness grace MIXED: changes are observed periods, not current daily moves Spread uses latest common date; one or more legs have newer observations Unsecured fixing versus different instrument/market conventions; not a pure credit spread or cross-currency basis. Same observation date does not guarantee synchronized intraday quotes. HKMA · HIBOR_1M HKMA · HKGB_YIELD_1M HKMA | Stale valid |
| 3M HIBOR − 3M EFB 2026-09-30 · daily, lagged | 52.2 bp | -3.1 bp | +12.6 bp | Within ruleAlert when absolute change from previous observed date exceeds 10 bp. Configured monitoring threshold; not a risk score. Formula: (HIBOR_3M - HKGB_YIELD_3M) * 100 1 interval: 2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 Absolute move percentile: 46.52th over trailing 2Y (488 prior intervals) · BELOW_95TH_PERCENTILE 5 intervals: 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-30 Percentile: absolute prior observed-interval changes within trailing two calendar years; current move excluded; trusted endpoints only; minimum 60 prior moves; daily frequencies only. Coverage may be shorter than two years. Current stored quality classifications apply. DAILY_LAGGED: changes are observed periods, not current daily moves Unsecured fixing versus different instrument/market conventions; not a pure credit spread or cross-currency basis. Same observation date does not guarantee synchronized intraday quotes. HKMA · HIBOR_3M HKMA · HKGB_YIELD_3M HKMA | Fresh valid |
| 6M HIBOR − 6M EFB 2026-09-30 · daily, lagged | 48.8 bp | +1.9 bp | +4.1 bp | Within ruleAlert when absolute change from previous observed date exceeds 10 bp. Configured monitoring threshold; not a risk score. Formula: (HIBOR_6M - HKGB_YIELD_6M) * 100 1 interval: 2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 Absolute move percentile: 27.87th over trailing 2Y (488 prior intervals) · BELOW_95TH_PERCENTILE 5 intervals: 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-30 Percentile: absolute prior observed-interval changes within trailing two calendar years; current move excluded; trusted endpoints only; minimum 60 prior moves; daily frequencies only. Coverage may be shorter than two years. Current stored quality classifications apply. DAILY_LAGGED: changes are observed periods, not current daily moves Unsecured fixing versus different instrument/market conventions; not a pure credit spread or cross-currency basis. Same observation date does not guarantee synchronized intraday quotes. HKMA · HIBOR_6M HKMA · HKGB_YIELD_6M HKMA | Fresh valid |
| 12M HIBOR − 1Y EFB 2026-09-30 · daily, lagged | 85.4 bp | +11.7 bp | +22.5 bp | ⚠ Large moveAlert when absolute change from previous observed date exceeds 10 bp. Configured monitoring threshold; not a risk score. Formula: (HIBOR_12M - HKGB_YIELD_1Y) * 100 1 interval: 2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 Absolute move percentile: 94.67th over trailing 2Y (488 prior intervals) · BELOW_95TH_PERCENTILE 5 intervals: 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-30 Percentile: absolute prior observed-interval changes within trailing two calendar years; current move excluded; trusted endpoints only; minimum 60 prior moves; daily frequencies only. Coverage may be shorter than two years. Current stored quality classifications apply. DAILY_LAGGED: changes are observed periods, not current daily moves Unsecured fixing versus different instrument/market conventions; not a pure credit spread or cross-currency basis. Same observation date does not guarantee synchronized intraday quotes. HKMA · HIBOR_12M HKMA · HKGB_YIELD_1Y HKMA | Fresh valid |
| Indicator / date | Current | Δ 1 obs | Δ 5 obs | Flag / evidence | Freshness / quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/N HIBOR − SOFR 2026-10-28 · 2 trading days old · daily | -140.1 bp | +7.0 bp | +13.4 bp | Within ruleAlert when absolute change from previous observed date exceeds 10 bp. Configured monitoring threshold; not a risk score. Formula: (HIBOR_HKAB_ON - NYFED_SOFR) * 100 1 interval: 2026-10-27 → 2026-10-28 Absolute move percentile: 33.9th over trailing 2Y (236 prior intervals) · BELOW_95TH_PERCENTILE 5 intervals: 2026-10-21 → 2026-10-28 Percentile: absolute prior observed-interval changes within trailing two calendar years; current move excluded; trusted endpoints only; minimum 60 prior moves; daily frequencies only. Coverage may be shorter than two years. Current stored quality classifications apply. Spread uses latest common date; one or more legs have newer observations Unsecured fixing versus different instrument/market conventions; not a pure credit spread or cross-currency basis. Same observation date does not guarantee synchronized intraday quotes. HKAB · HIBOR_HKAB_ON NYFED · NYFED_SOFR HKAB / NYFED | Fresh valid |
| O/N HONIA − SOFR 2026-09-30 · 21 trading days old · mixed frequencies | -5.2 bp | +115.8 bp | +159.5 bp | ⚠ Large moveAlert when absolute change from previous observed date exceeds 10 bp. Configured monitoring threshold; not a risk score. Formula: (HONIA - NYFED_SOFR) * 100 1 interval: 2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 Absolute move percentile: 98.73th over trailing 2Y (471 prior intervals) · ABSOLUTE_MOVE_AT_OR_ABOVE_95TH_PERCENTILE 5 intervals: 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-30 Percentile: absolute prior observed-interval changes within trailing two calendar years; current move excluded; trusted endpoints only; minimum 60 prior moves; daily frequencies only. Coverage may be shorter than two years. Current stored quality classifications apply. Observation exceeds frequency-aware freshness grace MIXED: changes are observed periods, not current daily moves Spread uses latest common date; one or more legs have newer observations Unsecured fixing versus different instrument/market conventions; not a pure credit spread or cross-currency basis. Same observation date does not guarantee synchronized intraday quotes. HKMA · HONIA NYFED · NYFED_SOFR HKMA / NYFED | Stale valid |
Official liquidity outlook — coverage limits
HKMA's forecast of the Aggregate Balance and its breakdown of flows are not stored yet, so they are not shown. HKD forward quotes are withheld until their redistribution terms are confirmed; note that a forward premium or discount is not a prediction of a peg break.
Check HKMA pipeline healthReading this board Observation windows, timestamps & citations
Each row has its own observation date. Δ 1 obs / Δ 5 obs = change over 1 / 5 observations: days for daily data, periods for lagged, weekly or monthly data. Expand any flag for its rule, comparison dates and source citations.
Generated · Structured JSON
| Indicator / date | Current | Δ 1 obs | Δ 5 obs | Flag / evidence | Freshness / quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDHKD (Fed H.10) 2026-10-23 · 5 trading days old · daily | 7.8423 HKD per USD | +0.08% | -0.07% | Within ruleAlert when absolute change from previous observed date exceeds 0.1 %. Configured monitoring threshold; not a risk score. Formula: FX_USDHKD 1 interval: 2026-10-22 → 2026-10-23 Absolute move percentile: 90.98th over trailing 2Y (499 prior intervals) · BELOW_95TH_PERCENTILE 5 intervals: 2026-10-16 → 2026-10-23 FX_USDHKD 2026-10-22 revision 0: Stored observation is trusted with a validation warning. The exact check is not linked to this observation revision; no specific cause or threshold is asserted. The move-monitoring threshold is a separate rule. Percentile: absolute prior observed-interval changes within trailing two calendar years; current move excluded; trusted endpoints only; minimum 60 prior moves; daily frequencies only. Coverage may be shorter than two years. Current stored quality classifications apply. FED · FX_USDHKD FED | Fresh valid |
| USDHKD (ECB cross) 2026-10-29 · daily | 7.8464 HKD per USD | +0.02% | +0.08% | Within ruleAlert when absolute change from previous observed date exceeds 0.1 %. Configured monitoring threshold; not a risk score. Formula: FX_USDHKD_ECB 1 interval: 2026-10-28 → 2026-10-29 Absolute move percentile: 48.72th over trailing 2Y (509 prior intervals) · BELOW_95TH_PERCENTILE 5 intervals: 2026-10-22 → 2026-10-29 Percentile: absolute prior observed-interval changes within trailing two calendar years; current move excluded; trusted endpoints only; minimum 60 prior moves; daily frequencies only. Coverage may be shorter than two years. Current stored quality classifications apply. ECB · FX_USDHKD_ECB ECB | Fresh valid |
| O/N HIBOR − HONIA 2026-09-30 · 20 trading days old · mixed frequencies | 24.0 bp | +6.0 bp | +11.9 bp | Stale dataAlert when absolute change from previous observed date exceeds 10 bp. Configured monitoring threshold; not a risk score. Formula: (HIBOR_HKAB_ON - HONIA) * 100 1 interval: 2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 Absolute move percentile: 63.11th over trailing 2Y (225 prior intervals) · BELOW_95TH_PERCENTILE 5 intervals: 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-30 Percentile: absolute prior observed-interval changes within trailing two calendar years; current move excluded; trusted endpoints only; minimum 60 prior moves; daily frequencies only. Coverage may be shorter than two years. Current stored quality classifications apply. Observation exceeds frequency-aware freshness grace MIXED: changes are observed periods, not current daily moves Spread uses latest common date; one or more legs have newer observations HKAB · HIBOR_HKAB_ON HKMA · HONIA HKAB / HKMA | Stale valid |
| 3M HIBOR − O/N HONIA (mixed tenor) 2026-09-30 · daily, lagged | -60.6 bp | -117.8 bp | -149.9 bp | ⚠ Large moveAlert when absolute change from previous observed date exceeds 10 bp. Configured monitoring threshold; not a risk score. Formula: (HIBOR_3M - HONIA) * 100 1 interval: 2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 Absolute move percentile: 98.15th over trailing 2Y (487 prior intervals) · ABSOLUTE_MOVE_AT_OR_ABOVE_95TH_PERCENTILE 5 intervals: 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-30 Percentile: absolute prior observed-interval changes within trailing two calendar years; current move excluded; trusted endpoints only; minimum 60 prior moves; daily frequencies only. Coverage may be shorter than two years. Current stored quality classifications apply. DAILY_LAGGED: changes are observed periods, not current daily moves 3M versus overnight tenor: includes term structure, not a pure funding basis HKMA · HIBOR_3M HKMA · HONIA HKMA | Fresh valid |
| Aggregate Balance 2026-10-29 · daily | 54.0 HKD bn | 0.0 HKD bn | -0.1 HKD bn | Within ruleAlert when absolute change from previous observed date exceeds 10000 HKD millions. Configured monitoring threshold; not a risk score. Formula: HK_AGG_BALANCE 1 interval: 2026-10-28 → 2026-10-29 Absolute move percentile: 48.27th over trailing 2Y (491 prior intervals) · BELOW_95TH_PERCENTILE 5 intervals: 2026-10-22 → 2026-10-29 Percentile: absolute prior observed-interval changes within trailing two calendar years; current move excluded; trusted endpoints only; minimum 60 prior moves; daily frequencies only. Coverage may be shorter than two years. Current stored quality classifications apply. HKMA · HK_AGG_BALANCE HKMA | Fresh valid |
| HK Govt 2Y 2026-09-30 · daily, lagged | 3.72% | -5.5 bp | +11.8 bp | Within ruleAlert when absolute change from previous observed date exceeds 10 bp. Configured monitoring threshold; not a risk score. Formula: HKGB_YIELD_2Y 1 interval: 2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 Absolute move percentile: 79.8th over trailing 2Y (490 prior intervals) · BELOW_95TH_PERCENTILE 5 intervals: 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-30 Percentile: absolute prior observed-interval changes within trailing two calendar years; current move excluded; trusted endpoints only; minimum 60 prior moves; daily frequencies only. Coverage may be shorter than two years. Current stored quality classifications apply. DAILY_LAGGED: changes are observed periods, not current daily moves HKMA · HKGB_YIELD_2Y HKMA | Fresh valid |
Base Rate / HIBOR / HONIA · %
HIBOR Fixings (HKAB, daily) · %
The administrator's own 11:15 HKT fixing — current daily, unlike HKMA's bulletin copy (~1 month later). Cross-checked against HKMA. Redistribution restricted by HKAB terms: shown for monitoring, excluded from export.